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Key findings as to Corona and travel implications:

Travel in Corona times – especially by plane – will be different, and difficult. As it appears, there will be no quick recovery in the near future. The Coronavirus does not seem to disappear after this first wave, a second and maybe even a third wave may be probable. How will travel look like in these pandemic times? After having read tons of articles about this subject here a summary of my key findings and some assumptions in this respect.

Not only travel will undergo substantial changes but also the hospitality industry will be not the same. There will be significant modifications when it comes to staying in hotels and dining in restaurants, too. While I go into the hotel issue in this post, the dining industry is the topic of my next one.

Educated guesses, not certainties

Of course, nobody knows about the precise consequences of Corona for the developments in the travel industry. I am no expert in this field, yet I consider myself a seasoned traveler and a travel news junkie. Therefore, I felt compelled to list possible impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the way people will go on vacation in the near (or not so near) future.

So far every third Swiss citizen had to cancel or amend a booked trip because of Corona. And this is just the start! There will be more such travel rearrangements in the foreseeable future, and not only in Switzerland but all over the world. And it goes without saying, I am also affected by this wave of trip cancellations. My husband and I had to postpone a trip to Bhutan to next year and there is another one scheduled to Western Australia in late fall which is not very likely to take place.

When will we be traveling again?

I consider the situation from a Swiss/European point of view where we see the curve of Corona cases and deaths flattening. It might be different if you are an U.S. citizen where the disease is still spreading.

At the moment, it seems that the countries within Europe might open their borders end of June. When it comes to air travel, the first flying opportunities are likely to be in July or August. Yet it will last much longer until the air traffic rebounds to the pre-Corona level. As to intercontinental flights, there is little hope that they will take place before 2021. This is especially due to the assumption that many countries will not have removed their entry restrictions until then.

That might leave us to plan travel close to home

as from early summer. Maybe you might also be able to visit some neighboring countries at this point of time. But of course only those that were not too affected by the virus. These trips will be preferably by car. As from late summer, you might consider flying within Europe. And – as mentioned – intercontinental flights could be an option end of 2020, at the very earliest.

Plan driving trips in summer 2020

As indicated, the car might be the preferred means of transport

when it comes to traveling in 2020. Why not hitting the road and staying at a small hotel in a nearby remote area? A good idea is it also to look for places that offer those outdoor recreational activities.

Opting for a stay in your home country and avoiding big cities is the most obvious way to feel safe from catching the disease. And if you drive by yourself, you would be free to leave whenever you want. This might be an option as many hotels probably will adopt more lenient change and cancellations policies, at least temporarily.

There are more advantages if you choose domestic travel over international for the near future. When doing so, you are supportive of your country’s economy as there is not much hope that there will be many guests from abroad in these first months. And if you decide quickly, you may profit from discounts just as “pay for 5 nights, stay for 7 nights”. My husband and I have just made use of such an offer. So we have something to look forward to in these unpleasant times!

How will air travel be like in times of Corona?

I have still a glimmer of hope that my husband and I can start our scheduled air travels (Western Australia in late fall and Thailand in winter) and of course I am wondering how it will be when we can fly again. From what I read, it will most likely be a slow recovery that differs across the globe. Travelers might have to continue to contend with various travel bans, visa rules and lockdowns.

As to entry restrictions, the worst case scenario would be closed boarders (for non-residents.) Almost just as bad would be quarantining new arrivals. This would de facto mean that no tourism is possible. Embarrassing but acceptable measures could furthermore be monitoring who arrives as well as checking their health conditions and exposure history. Probabilities might be that some countries will also require contact tracing of visitors once being allowed to entry.

In the field of air travel, the industry is working on new hygiene and distance standards. These include the use of hospital-grade disinfectant as well as social distancing both in the air and on the ground. The latter will involve measures just as keeping all middle seats vacant in economy class or alternating window and aisle seats when they are in pairs.

You can also expect that airlines will try to identify travelers with medical conditions pointing to early stages of COVID-19. Conceivable practices before check-in might involve general health screening or rapid Coronavirus tests. Once a vaccine is available, a vaccination certificate might be mandatory to enter several countries, too. The onboard service will also be limited, be it in terms of food and beverage or cabin baggage.

In any case, it is highly probable that there will be fewer passengers on board than before. At the same time, airlines will presumably reduce their fleet size. And this would imply together with more costs due to additional Corona testing that the era of cheap air travel might possibly come to an end. Of course, there will be some incentive offers when the passenger volume is temporarily down, but only as an exception.

Accommodation in times of Corona

Where will we stay once we safely arrive at our destination? Will we choose vacation rentals or hotels? One thing seems clear, cleanliness will be important, very much so. Maybe we might feel more secure in hotels than in rentals because of presumed higher standards of property cleanliness with well-established cleaning processes and trainings?

Be it as it may, there will be no way around promoting hotel cleanliness. This will include the use of hospital-grade disinfectants and rigorous cleaning protocols accompanied by an increased frequency. And of course you need more space for social distancing. You may be able to use your phone to check in, to access your room and to order room service. All food handlers must be trained when it comes to safe food preparation and service practices. In-room dining will be more important and new needs require adapted guidelines in order to guarantee a delivery without contact. And last but not least, new approaches to buffets will be necessary. It is unthinkable that the current design e.g. for the breakfast buffet can be maintained – which I always thought has not been very hygienic.

As far as prices for hotel stays are concerned, they are prone to drop before they rise again in these early stages of Corona travel. And this despite rising costs as a result of pandemic measures. Unlike the air travel industry where the number of flights is likely to go down, a shortage of hotel rooms should be no issue. And therefore rates should rather decrease, at least in the near future. Later on you might face much higher prices at peak times in particular.

Possible trends in the travel industry due to Corona

Certainly travel will become more difficult in the time to come. Nothing will be the same in terms of flying but also staying at hotels will be different. Traveling will take great efforts, from all sides, including the travel industry and the customers. It may very well be that people make different choices, even weighing whether a trip is compelling enough to take the trouble. They will ask themselves if this is a place they just must be. There might be a higher threshold to choose to make a journey. Micro-trips, where people flew to far-flung locales for a short time just because fares were cheap and rentals were booming, will become less likely. Instead vacationers might consider fewer trips with longer duration. And maybe they will opt for more meaningful trips, too.

As a consequence of higher costs for air travel, there will foreseeably be less mass tourism. This development will be accentuated by the worldwide recession we will have to face. Maybe overtourism will go down in history as pre-pandemic phenomenon only? It seems possible that the Coronavirus contributes to a more sustainable travel, which is for the benefit of health, environment and cultural heritage. What might also be a possibility is a comeback of travel agents. It would be no surprise if people feel unsure about traveling and want to make use of a travel advisor.

Are you interested in prospective developments in the restaurant industry, too? Just as the travel and hotel industry, this branch will have to endure changes as a result of the current crisis around the Coronavirus. I checked out what had been written about this topic and want to let you know about it – of course with my ideas flowed in again!